UMPC or Internet Tablet - Samsung Q1

It is only fair to mention Samsung Q1 if I did it for Sony UMPC, UX390N.

At first, I did not pay much attention to the Q1P. It was a little over weight for its own good and it suffers most of the same problem as Sony's UX390N. After using it for Internet browsing and email for a few days, I think it is a slightly better product than UX390N, if used it at home.

Why is that? First, the resolution of its 7-inch screen was set at 800x480 as default. It is a much better viewing experience, comparing with UX390N's tiny screen at 1024x600. The performance is marginally better, though not a huge difference.

I would not say Samsung totally gets it though Q1P works a little better. It is still too expensive, too heavy and the cycle for recharge is not long enough. Let's see, after this year's CES (Consumer Electronics Show), what will come out of those vendors and whether UMPC will be a reality.

Samsung Q1P Vista
Price when purchased USD$1100
Memory: 1GB
Storage: 60GB
Screen: 7" WVGA, 800x480
battery: Li-Ion standard 3 cell
Intel® Pentium® M ULV Processor 723 (1GHz, 400MHz, 1MB)
Windows® Vista Home Premium

Push Email on the Cell Phone

I have been using push Email on my cell phone for almost a year now. And I no longer need the "push" part any more.

Push email is like the normal email that half of the world is using nowadays. The "push" part is having the email server deliver an email instantly without waiting for the email client to poll it every now and then. At first I thought this could be a good idea. I don't have to worry when there is any new email for me, and I don't waste any bandwidth usage on polls with empty return. But soon I found out push email is not as useful as it suggests.

First of all, I have quite a few emails with different urgency levels everyday. When emails arrive in my mail box, the email server has no way to tell one from the other. Therefore, my cell phone kept reminding me of new emails and I had to pull it out to see the cry wolf. The importance setting on each email does not make the prioritization of delivery better since my perception of importance matters also, not just the sender's. Secondly, there are a lot of times, I just cannot respond to an arriving email ASAP. I may be in a meeting, or talking to my boss or my significant other. I don't want to be distracted or deemed as such. Last but not least, the emails heading my way come from several places in the world. It is not just 9 to 5 as peak hour to turn the push email on. In the end, I just turn the push off and switch to polling every half an hour. In the evening, I poll email manually only when I have time, or just turn on the laptop and forget about my cell phone.

Very soon, the justification of saving bandwidth will be gone as most of the flat-fee data connection services are good enough for normal email and occasional web browsing. Email software and service vendors need to have this feature on the check list to stay relevant in the competition. I can imagine certain email users that need the "push" function because of their professions. However, I wonder what the proportion is to the general email users and whether the simple transport-based push mechanism serves those users right. Given the abusive usage of email today, I would much more like to see a "push-away" email than the pushy ones.

Google Android Is Coming to Town

Google formally joined the cell phone industry by announcing its Android.

On November 5, 2007, Google announced Open Platform for Mobile Devices, so called Android platform. A week later, Google announced the Android Developer Challenge and released Android SDK.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said Android is just a few words on paper right now and it is hard to make any comparison. This statement has certain truth in it than just a defensive spin. Among the one billion annual global shipment of cell phone handsets today, a little more than 12% of them are smart phones. It took Microsoft 10 years to reach the 12-month volume of 10 million Windows Mobile handsets in mid-2007. And for iPhone, Apple has to incorporate such a huge marketing effort hoping to achieve a similar volume target by sometime in 2008.

Now only HTC, one partner in the Open Handset Alliance, committed to ship Android based handsets in 2008. With its current capacity and potential expansion, HTC can probably ship 1 to 2 million of Android phones by end of 2008. This is assuming there is no porting and integration problem and Google has figured out all the distribution channels. Unless LG, Samsung and Motorola make some sizable commitments soon, Android will still be a very small player in the high-end market, even by 2010.

Why is that? The BOM cost of a smart phone is around $120 to $160 on average. Some really well equipped smart phones such as Apple iPhone may cost up to $200, according to street estimate. Comparing to software licensing cost, which is around $10 to $20, this industry is still a hardware and logistics play than software. If Android phones have to sell through distributors and carriers, the price will be at least $400 and hardly profitable. If Apple iPhone's price cut taught us anything, there is a price ceiling for a consumer-oriented handset. It also sets the limit on the premium that software can add. Of course, Google can always sell directly to consumer by opening its online store, Android Checkout. If that happens, it will speak loudly for Google's commitment to Android.

This is not a detraction to Android, but a reality check. If you are a developer and your focus is on Web 2.0 and the long tail, it may be worthwhile to consider Android. The Android platform may as well be the platform for Google's future consumer gadgets. In any case, it will be Google's commitment to Android that makes developer's effort worth. For the rest of us in the cell phone industry, there are too many things to improve and compete on. One more Android will not make the Borg cube collapse but more to assimilate.

感冒季節

最近聽到一則有關感冒季節的報導.

這篇報導談到研究有關為什麼"冬天"是感冒季節. 這篇報導引述過去許多不同的假設及理論, 以及這些理論不合理的地方. 最近的研究發現, 感冒病毒在華氏41度比華氏68度更穩定. 到了華氏86度就幾乎沒有傳染力. 而在百分之二十的濕度下, 病毒的傳播效率最好. 濕度到了百分之八十, 病毒就幾乎不再傳播. 這也解釋了為什麼北半球的感冒季節是十一月到三月, 南半球的感冒季節是五月到就九月. 而在熱帶沒有明顯的感冒季節.

有意思的是, 平常人的觀察早就已經查覺天氣冷和感冒的關係. 科學研究人員卻要繞這麼大一圈, 才注意到溫度和濕度, 這兩項冬季最明顯的特徵. 如果你有興趣, 你可以到以下的網站細讀這篇報導.

The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/health/research/05flu.html?hp

San Jose Mercury News http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_7638849

U.S. Monster Employment Index of November 2007

It seems the adjustment has started as I have suspected.

I logged down my thoughts on the index last month, "U.S. Monster Employment Index". This month we saw the index singing a similar tune.

November's number of US Monster Index dropped to 183 from 188 in October. The significance is not in the month-to-month change but the time it changes. The company said in the press release, "This marks the first time since its inception that the index has declined during the month of November ...", and "the year-over-year increase was the lowest on record".

I monitor the Monster Employment Index because of its resemblance of a leading index. Next month, we may see another dip for December, though it is nothing to be alarmed further. As I said, Monster Employment Index is too young to help us to predict the trend accurately. I believe Mr. Bernanke can manage to land the economy softly without a recession. Yet it is my observation on the strength of US economy. Even if we get a recession next year, I think it will be a short one, even shorter than the 2001 recession. But for now, let's hope it will not happen and the correction will come gently.

UMPC or Internet Tablet - Sony UMPC

Recently, I had the pleasure to use Sony UMPC, VAIO VGN-UX390N, for the purpose of evaluation.

The first time I saw it was at an electronic store in Las Vegas. It looked very impressive in the window. The build quality seemed to be very solid and refined. That was my first impression of Sony UMPC.

Several months later, a work related activity prompted me to purchase two UMPC's for evaluation. I picked UX390N and Samsung's Q1 for the project. I volunteered my time on UX390N, since I had such a good first impression on it.

After a few days, I was quite disappointed with UX390N. It is not as fast as I have expected, especially when starting an application. The screen and font size are not easy on my eyes. When I increased the font size, application windows would not fit the screen. The battery lasted only for two hours after each charge. From time to time the software and operating system hung. The user experience was less than satisfactory.

It is a fully functional PC in a petite form loaded with Microsoft Windows Vista Business. With build-in GPRS connectivity (provided by AT&T) and priced at US$2350, apparently it is for business users. I have doubts about the product positioning and wonder who the potential customers are. With $2000, a business user can buy a light laptop weighted at 3 lb that has a full keyboard and a screen around 11 inches, like the VAIO TZ series. The performance is better in that class and the size of the disk space will not be a problem. It dose not require build-in GPRS. A lot of 2.5G/3G cell phones can be used as modem to provide wireless data connection. Can UX390N be used for consumers at home? I think it is too pricey for that market. Besides, holding a 1.2-lb up to two hours for Internet browsing is not very pleasant. With its form factor, it has to be as light as an Apple iPod Touch (120 g) or a Nokia N810 (225 g). As for software, it suffices to say Vista is not the best fit for this type of device and Sony needs to look into another direction.

I was wondering what happened at Sony in recent years. It is still very good at building hardware of excellent quality. Now that a new generation (UX490) is available for sale, I hope Sony will realize upgrading hardware will not make the device better. After all, hardware is only half of the story.

Sony VAIO VGN-UX390N -
Intel Core Solo U1500 @ 1.33GHz
1GB Memory
32 GB flash disk drive
MS Windows Vista Business
Weight 1.2 lb
Dimension 5.91”(W) x 3.74”(H) x 1.27-1.50”(D)